Do VP Debates Matter?

 Being an inveterate political junkie, I always watch debates during a Presidential Election cycle.  Of course, take-aways from these contests are often less about substance and more about style or catch phrases.  Experience has taught that impressions are even more the case with Vice Presidential debates.

Before one dismisses the significance of the Election 2020 Vice Presidential debate between Democrat Senator Kalama Harris (D-CA) and Republican Vice President Mike Pence (R-IN), it is incumbent on a conscientious voter to consider the top of the ticket.   Pence is the running mate of a 74 year old incumbent Chief Executive who was recently diagnosed with COVID-19.  Harris is the bottom of a ticket with a 78 year old challenger who many believe is displaying cognitive decline and  has engaged  in what can charitably called  a laid back general election campaign,  These VP nominees may not just be virtue signaling for identity politics or geographical balance to a ticket, but may well inherit the Oval Office.

To prepare for the future, it helps to look back at the recent past to discern tips and tricks for Vice presidential debates.

For me, the most memorable zinger from a VP contest was in 1988, when George Herbert Walker Bush's VP nominee Senator Dan Quayle (D-IN), tried to answer moderators' pushback on his qualifications if he were to become President.  Qualye, who many believe was chosen in part for his youthful vigor to balance one of the last Greatest Generation Presidential candidates, tried to give vague assurances of continuity.  To support his credentials, Quayle compared himself to Democrat icon President John F. Kennedy, who had the same amount of elected experience before becoming President. Democrat Vice Presidential candidate Senator Lloyd Bentsen (D-TX), overcame his debate jitters to utter the ultimate deflating repartee 

"Senator, I served with Jack Kennedy. I knew Jack Kennedy. Jack Kennedy was a friend of mine. Senator, you're no Jack Kennedy."

 

 

 As spontaneous as that sounded, the jibe came from debate prep.  According to Dukakis campaign advisor Susan Estrich in 2004, the stand in for Quayle kept making this JFK comparison, which stunned Bentson.  The Democrat VP nominee asked his advisors if he could say something and they agreed.  The rest was history and comedic fodder for years.  Not that it really helped the Dukakis/Bentsen ticket, which got crushed in the Electoral College in 1988.

For the most part, people rarely remember the VP debates.  Honestly, some political pundits strain to think of losing VP nominees four years later, such as Senator Tim Kaine, (D-VA) First Lady/Senator/Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton's choice in 2016.   At the time, I covered the debate blow by blow.  But it made little impact and Kaine slunk into faded memories, even despite retaining his Senate seat.

Despite being quite occupied with the Romney/Ryan ticket in 2012, I struggle to recall any take away moments from the VP debate between Representative Paul Ryan (R-WI 1st) and Obama Vice President Joseph Robinette Biden.  Some commentators note that Biden smirked and interrupted the Congressman, which seems to be part of Biden's toolbox.  This non-verbal strategy does not accord gravitas to one's opponent; however, depending upon the post debate spin, it risks making the perpetrator look like a jackass.

Sometimes, it helps for a candidate to draw from his or her biography to score points.  Biden is famous for invoking his familial tragedies to draw empathy during a debate, as he did during the dust up with Senator John McCain's (R-AZ) maverick VP choice Governor Sarah Palin (R-AK) in 2008.

For the 2020 Vice Presidential debate, Senator Kamala Harris  should be well experienced, as she participated in six monthly Democrat Presidential Primary debates before dropping out before the Iowa Caucus with virtually no support.  

Harris made the most of her first debate appearance by going after the jugular of front runner Joe Biden by indirectly accusing him of being a racist for opposing school bussing in the 1970s.

   

 Harris' verbal hit must have been preplanned, because the next day her campaign store was ready to roll with "That little girl was me" t-shirts and stylized social media posts.  

In some senses, Harris' hardball did not politically hurt her ambitions,  as Joe Biden chose her to be his running mate (or is that vice versa?).  But in a more intangible sense, that attack leads to a perception of unlikeability and phoniness amongst even  diehard Democrats.  

Mike Pence's style is certainly less confrontational than President Trump's demeanor. Pence has a well earned reputation as an Evangelical Christian, so don't expect bombast or invective.  But before successfully being elected to Congress in 2000, Pence hosted a syndicated daily radio talk show for seven  years.  Pence branded himself "Rush on decaf", meaning that he was just as conservative as Rush Limbaugh but without the bombast.  Pence also hosted a weekend public affairs television program.  Skill sets developed from these experiences, such as being comfortable on camera, calmly discussing issues and controlling time, might be quite helpful during a debate.

One of the distinctive qualities of the Biden/Harris campaign is controlling the media narrative, as both candidates eschew taking unscripted questions from the press and have extremely limited campaign events which are meant for television. The mainstream media has not hidden their support for the Democrat ticket.  Thus this might be the opportunity for Republicans to impeach candidate Harris by posing hard questions. For example: "Senator Harris, how did you reconcile Joe Biden's opposition to school bussing with your hurt feelings  over racism?"   On the one hand, if Pence fails to propose such pointed questions, it is a lost opportunity.  On the other had, would soft spoken challenges get ignored and make the interrogator inept?

One of the major criticisms of the first Election 2020 Presidential debate was the disrespectful over-talking and insults between the participants.  There is little danger of those traits from Mike Pence.  That is not as sure of a bet with Kamala Harris.  Harris played the adult in the room for the second 2020  Democrat primary debate, which is easy to do with a crowded stage, but that may come off differently one-on-one.

It seems that the Biden/Harris campaign is banking on a visual perception to sell a major component of their campaign.  Due to COVID-19, Harris insisted that the daises be placed at a safe 12 apart.  In addition, the Democrat debater and the moderator will be surrounded by a plexiglass barrier.  This staging may draw attention to the Biden/Harris contention that the Trump Administration has been inept in handling the viral pandemic.  In marked contrast, Vice President Pence declined the see thru cage, which also may be sending a message.

For those that eat, sleep and breathe politics, the Vice Presidential debate will be of temporary great import.  But my visceral instinct is that it will have little impact, aside from confirming impressions of the candidates. In this cycle, that impression may not be a good thing. 

 

Senator John McCain on His Passing

McConnell: McCain Won't Mutiny Against Trump Tax Reform

John McCain on Spurious Half Baked Nationalism

Senator McCain's remarks as he received the National Constitution Center's Liberty award seems to be aimed at the populist politics championed by erstwhile Trump Senior Advisor Stephen Bannon. 

On a Maverick Bromance

Not only are they both loyal to each other and a mutual admiration society but they both are quite hawkish on the American uses of force throughout the world.  But despite the caricature, they can apply more viral war paint. 

Sen. Rand Paul Reacts to Sen. John McCain's Belligerent Bile

John McCain Denounces Rand Paul as Putin Apparatchik

Sen. John McCain on Diplomacy with North Korea

John McCain on the Free Press

So You Say You Want a Revolution -- Understanding the Euromaiden in Ukraine

As the world watches the 2014 Winter Olympics in Sochi, Russian Federation, there is unrest in Kjiv, Ukraine.  Nearly twenty years ago, Nike advertised the that Revolution would not be televised.  That proves untrue as Espreso TV was carrying it live as paramilitary attacked the peaceful protestors throughout the night of February 19th.   First news reports indicate that 22 fatalities with 1,000 people injured,  but  based on the constant pops in the night air and the burning pyres of the barricades  in the main square, this could be a low estimate. 

At first blush,  research intimated that it the Ukrainian unrest might stem from ethnic demarcations, as the Russian speaking Ukrainians might want a Slavic version of Aunshluss as expressed through trade agreements.   When violence escalates in a nation of 45 million that is known as the breadbasket of Europe, which neighbors an expansion happy Russian Federation, I was driven to learn more.  Yet I took some claims with grains of salt.  It was bothersome to read reports  claiming that Nazi sympathizers had taken up arms in Western Ukraine.  This type of damning news tracks Russian propaganda ploys which Lt. Gen. Ion Mihai Pacepa, the former spy chief for Ceaucescu’s Romania,  detailed  in his book Disinformation.  

Unfortunately, most Americans will be more worried about the opening week of American Idol or watching NBC’s polished rebroadcast of Olympic events in Sochi to worry about internal unrest half-way around the world.  But when the Putin-alooza ends on the Black Sea on February 23rd, it would not be surprising if the Russians troops helped their Russo-philic Ukrainain President Viktor Yanukovych.  Putin has promised  Ukraine $15 billion in aid but is withholding $12 billion in case the Yanukovych loses power.

[L] Russian President Vladimir Putin [R] Ukrainian President Victor Yanukovych at Sochi Winter Olympics 

The EuroMaidan protests began on November 21st, 2013 when protestors gathered at Independence Square in Kyiv, the capital of Ukraine when President Yanukovych suddenly swayed away from an associate agreement with the European Union and chose to strengthen economic ties with Russia.  The protest snowballed on November 30th when a group of students were attacked by the police, and it became a national movement.  

Protestors have been gathering in Independence Square, in the bitter Ukranian cold day and night to protest.  But people do not get passionate about just trade agreements.  People are concerned about the rampant corruption in Ukraine. President Yanukovych’s aloofness and unresponsiveness to the will of the people engenders ire.  And of course, the heavy handed tactics, which killed five protestors in late January and the wider violence and bloodshed today. 

While Kjiv’s main square constantly has 20,000 protestors (and can swell up to 800,000), there are said to be mini Maidans throughout the country, but much more pronounced in Western Ukraine.    George Weigel characterized the Euromaidan protests as the rising up of a nation which is tired of being ruled by thieves and barbarians and stand against a thugocracy. 

Last week, Bishop Borys Gudziak, of the Ukrainian Catholic Eparch of  Paris, gave an interview with New York Archbishop Timothy Cardinal Dolan about Ukraine.   Gudziak, who is also the President of the Ukrainian Catholic University in Lviv examined  the roots of the Euromaidan protests along with highlighting the unifying spirit which has brought together Orthodox, Catholic, Protestants, Jews and Muslims to protest the current Ukrainian Government.  





Bishop Gudziak has been a leading voice to oppose the oppression of the Yanukovych government and to urge for peaceful protest from the people.   Gudziak has observed: “The country, in somewhat traumatic ways, is trying to break the bonds of the past and the bonds of fear and subjugation by declaring the God-given dignity of every human being."   Bishop Gudziak has summarized protestors aspirations : The EuroMaidan seeks many of the values that Paris, France, and Western Europe represent: rule of law, equal justice for all, social freedoms and guarantees.

What is really remarkable about the EuroMaidan protestors is how they were Seeing Deeper in a practical way through ecumenical prayer.  Bishop Gudziak noted that during the nightwatch, the top of each hour was led by prayer.  Watching the protests live, I could discern speakers intoning prayers to God, (Bog), peace (mir), and the Ave Maria as well as shouts of “Death to tyranny”.    This does not sound like the stuff of neo-Nazis. 

As Americans, it is easy to feel lured into indifference about unrest in other parts of the world.  But Ukraine is an important nation and is may serve as fodder for Russian imperialist expansion.  

It is prudent for policymakers and the public not to rush into judgment and rashly embark the US  into perilous partnerships like in Libya, Egypt and as the Obama Administration was angling for in Syria.  But our prudence must not ossify into inaction, since if you choose not to choose,you have still made a choice. 

These Euromaidan protests have been going on for the last three months.  It is a region of the world that we are familiar with through the Cold War.  Now that we know the protesters goals and modus operandi, what is the Yanukovych Ukrainian government position, and how much which "friendly" neighbors help resolve the uprising?

Senator John McCain (R-AZ) has called for sanctions against the Ukrainian government.  Aside from geopolitical considerations, this is a people who wished to be freed from tyranny.  We ought not abandon such lovers of liberty as the Obama Administration did with the Green Revolution in Iran in 2009.   Then again, a God fearing people protesting against thievery and heavy handed tactics may not find much sympathy in today’s corridors of power of the District of Calamity. 

[N.B. This piece originally ran in it's entirety at DCBarroco]