Do VP Debates Matter?

 Being an inveterate political junkie, I always watch debates during a Presidential Election cycle.  Of course, take-aways from these contests are often less about substance and more about style or catch phrases.  Experience has taught that impressions are even more the case with Vice Presidential debates.

Before one dismisses the significance of the Election 2020 Vice Presidential debate between Democrat Senator Kalama Harris (D-CA) and Republican Vice President Mike Pence (R-IN), it is incumbent on a conscientious voter to consider the top of the ticket.   Pence is the running mate of a 74 year old incumbent Chief Executive who was recently diagnosed with COVID-19.  Harris is the bottom of a ticket with a 78 year old challenger who many believe is displaying cognitive decline and  has engaged  in what can charitably called  a laid back general election campaign,  These VP nominees may not just be virtue signaling for identity politics or geographical balance to a ticket, but may well inherit the Oval Office.

To prepare for the future, it helps to look back at the recent past to discern tips and tricks for Vice presidential debates.

For me, the most memorable zinger from a VP contest was in 1988, when George Herbert Walker Bush's VP nominee Senator Dan Quayle (D-IN), tried to answer moderators' pushback on his qualifications if he were to become President.  Qualye, who many believe was chosen in part for his youthful vigor to balance one of the last Greatest Generation Presidential candidates, tried to give vague assurances of continuity.  To support his credentials, Quayle compared himself to Democrat icon President John F. Kennedy, who had the same amount of elected experience before becoming President. Democrat Vice Presidential candidate Senator Lloyd Bentsen (D-TX), overcame his debate jitters to utter the ultimate deflating repartee 

"Senator, I served with Jack Kennedy. I knew Jack Kennedy. Jack Kennedy was a friend of mine. Senator, you're no Jack Kennedy."

 

 

 As spontaneous as that sounded, the jibe came from debate prep.  According to Dukakis campaign advisor Susan Estrich in 2004, the stand in for Quayle kept making this JFK comparison, which stunned Bentson.  The Democrat VP nominee asked his advisors if he could say something and they agreed.  The rest was history and comedic fodder for years.  Not that it really helped the Dukakis/Bentsen ticket, which got crushed in the Electoral College in 1988.

For the most part, people rarely remember the VP debates.  Honestly, some political pundits strain to think of losing VP nominees four years later, such as Senator Tim Kaine, (D-VA) First Lady/Senator/Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton's choice in 2016.   At the time, I covered the debate blow by blow.  But it made little impact and Kaine slunk into faded memories, even despite retaining his Senate seat.

Despite being quite occupied with the Romney/Ryan ticket in 2012, I struggle to recall any take away moments from the VP debate between Representative Paul Ryan (R-WI 1st) and Obama Vice President Joseph Robinette Biden.  Some commentators note that Biden smirked and interrupted the Congressman, which seems to be part of Biden's toolbox.  This non-verbal strategy does not accord gravitas to one's opponent; however, depending upon the post debate spin, it risks making the perpetrator look like a jackass.

Sometimes, it helps for a candidate to draw from his or her biography to score points.  Biden is famous for invoking his familial tragedies to draw empathy during a debate, as he did during the dust up with Senator John McCain's (R-AZ) maverick VP choice Governor Sarah Palin (R-AK) in 2008.

For the 2020 Vice Presidential debate, Senator Kamala Harris  should be well experienced, as she participated in six monthly Democrat Presidential Primary debates before dropping out before the Iowa Caucus with virtually no support.  

Harris made the most of her first debate appearance by going after the jugular of front runner Joe Biden by indirectly accusing him of being a racist for opposing school bussing in the 1970s.

   

 Harris' verbal hit must have been preplanned, because the next day her campaign store was ready to roll with "That little girl was me" t-shirts and stylized social media posts.  

In some senses, Harris' hardball did not politically hurt her ambitions,  as Joe Biden chose her to be his running mate (or is that vice versa?).  But in a more intangible sense, that attack leads to a perception of unlikeability and phoniness amongst even  diehard Democrats.  

Mike Pence's style is certainly less confrontational than President Trump's demeanor. Pence has a well earned reputation as an Evangelical Christian, so don't expect bombast or invective.  But before successfully being elected to Congress in 2000, Pence hosted a syndicated daily radio talk show for seven  years.  Pence branded himself "Rush on decaf", meaning that he was just as conservative as Rush Limbaugh but without the bombast.  Pence also hosted a weekend public affairs television program.  Skill sets developed from these experiences, such as being comfortable on camera, calmly discussing issues and controlling time, might be quite helpful during a debate.

One of the distinctive qualities of the Biden/Harris campaign is controlling the media narrative, as both candidates eschew taking unscripted questions from the press and have extremely limited campaign events which are meant for television. The mainstream media has not hidden their support for the Democrat ticket.  Thus this might be the opportunity for Republicans to impeach candidate Harris by posing hard questions. For example: "Senator Harris, how did you reconcile Joe Biden's opposition to school bussing with your hurt feelings  over racism?"   On the one hand, if Pence fails to propose such pointed questions, it is a lost opportunity.  On the other had, would soft spoken challenges get ignored and make the interrogator inept?

One of the major criticisms of the first Election 2020 Presidential debate was the disrespectful over-talking and insults between the participants.  There is little danger of those traits from Mike Pence.  That is not as sure of a bet with Kamala Harris.  Harris played the adult in the room for the second 2020  Democrat primary debate, which is easy to do with a crowded stage, but that may come off differently one-on-one.

It seems that the Biden/Harris campaign is banking on a visual perception to sell a major component of their campaign.  Due to COVID-19, Harris insisted that the daises be placed at a safe 12 apart.  In addition, the Democrat debater and the moderator will be surrounded by a plexiglass barrier.  This staging may draw attention to the Biden/Harris contention that the Trump Administration has been inept in handling the viral pandemic.  In marked contrast, Vice President Pence declined the see thru cage, which also may be sending a message.

For those that eat, sleep and breathe politics, the Vice Presidential debate will be of temporary great import.  But my visceral instinct is that it will have little impact, aside from confirming impressions of the candidates. In this cycle, that impression may not be a good thing. 

 

Sarah Palin on Sexual Harassment

Coffee, Tea or Cocktail Party

Since President Obama has taken office, the Republicans and the Democrats have been challenged by a few new “parties” to the political scene. While these factions have not yet sought to create formal party apparatuses, they are seeing to influence the established political parties.

Clearly, the TEA Party has stirred the grassroots of the American political field. While there may be other embryotic origins for the Tea Party, many attribute an on the air rant by Rick Santelli of CNBC as being the inspiration for the movement. In February 2009, while he was filing a live report on the floor of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange about the Homeowners Affordability and Stability Plan, Santelli vents about the poor financial plans that the Federal government was implementing. The CNBC reporter turns to the traders and asked if they should be forced to subsidize the bad behavior of others’ home loan, which elicited a bevy of boos. Santelli spontaneously suggests throwing a Chicago Tea Party.

The Tea Party is a reference to the iconic Boston Tea Party of 1773 when the Crown tried to impose the Tea Act. American colonists protested this tax for many reasons but especially because it violated the perceived principle that Americans had the right to be taxed by its own elected representatives. The Sons of Liberty took matters into their own hands by boarding the ships dressed as aboriginal Americans and throwing the merchandise into Boston Harbor. This was considered to be a key event in advancing the nascent American Revolution.

Within two weeks of Santelli’s clarion call on CNBC, there were protests in 40 cities around the country in reaction to Porkulus, a.k.a. the $787 Billion Stimulus Package that was rushed through Congress. The contemporary TEA party picked up steam by widespread nation wide protests on April 15th 2009, tax filing day. The terrific turnout at these ad hoc grassroots events showed participants that they were not alone and that they were Taxed Enough Already. Points of commonality included: lowering taxes, stopping wasteful government spending, reducing that national debt and adhering to the Constitution.

During the August Congressional Recess, when elected Federal officeholders often tour their districts on listening tours and hold Townhall Meetings, they were greeted by motivated Tea Party activists, who asked hard questions. Some of these Townhall Meetings were quite contentious. So much so, some lawmakers cancelled their public appearances since these Town Halls were not the typical constituent cake walks.
There was a gathering on the National Mall on September 12, 2009 that was promoted by Glenn Beck, FreedomWorks and many Tea Party organizations that attracted legions of Tea Party Activists. Crowd estimates vary, but the figures range from 80,000 from the Lamestream Media to an unofficial 1.2 million by on the scene Park Service officials. A figure that seemed reliable counted the number of marchers at Constitution and 14th St. NW, which came to 600,000, but did not include people like me who joined along the way. Regardless of the exact numbers, the crowd was massive.

Another ancillary effect of Tea Party activism has been the ordinary Americans running for office. These outsider candidates have challenged established Republican candidates, and defeated several of them in primaries, such as Christine O’Donnell defeating Mike Castle in Delaware Senate seat, Joe Miller uncrowning Senator Lisa Murkowski in Alaska, Mike Lee defeating Senator Robert Bennett in Utah, et ali.

The Coffee Party was (not was) an effort to counteract the success of the Tea Party that was launched on Facebook in January 2010. I apocryphally associate the genesis of the Coffee Party to the liberal young hipsters that hang out at Starbucks and the ilk. Their slogan was “Wake Up and Stand Up” with a mission to getting cooperation in government and removing corporate influence from politics. The Coffee Party was announced with great fanfare on the Lamestream Media, but the public seems to have received it with the lukewarm enthusiasm of Instant Joe. After the initial news peg there has been virtually nothing in the way of activism or media news pegs. In late September 2010, the national Coffee Party convention in Louisville drew only 350 participants and virtually no media coverage. Considering the watered down rap that organized tried to enlist their elderly audiences involvement, I would say that the Coffee Party is decaffeinated swill that can not be given away.

The Cocktail Party is not a new phenomenon but is an apt appraisal by former Governor Sarah Palin (R-AK) of between the beltways elitists. Angelo Codevilla wrote a book entitled “The Ruling Class: How They Corrupted America and What We Can Do About It” which details the group of bipartisan political elites who run America. It is not just many elected officials but the power circle includes Ivy League academics, those in think tanks and East Coast media mavens. Codevilla illustrates through the example of Supreme Court Justice Clarence Thomas, that just because you hold a prominent position, you are not automatically accepted into this elite cliche as you did not go to the right schools and were not trained to think the proper way. You can get this elitist imprimatur even if you have occasionally have wandered off the ideological reservation if you hold a powerful position and mouth the right shibboleth.

The Ruling Class and Country Class (the rest of us, especially in “Flyover Country”) has some resonance but can be confused with the economic class dichotomy of former Senator John Edwards (D-NC). So I believe that a more suitable moniker is the Cocktail Party. When President Ronald Reagan came to Washington, he was adamant about not governing to please the Georgetown cocktail circuit. Palin echoed those sentiments during a speech Bakersfield, California where she railed against cocktail party types, the go-along-to-get-along establishment Republicans. Pardon my French but Palin’s political bon-mot is le mot juste. With one clever phrase, Palin captured the establishment aspirations and inclinations of the Cocktail Party.

As the primary season has shown, the Cocktail Party wing of the Republican establishment is threatened by the Country Class sensibilities of the Tea Party movement. In the general election, I expect the Tea Party spirit to sweep out many entrenched incumbents. That will certainly change the Georgetown Cocktail circuit.

Personally, I agree with many of the espoused principles of the Tea Party. But since it is a loose amalgam of grassroots groups, some Tea Party organizations and candidates are not the most appealing or savvy. The test will be governance after November 2nd. In a moment of candor, former Republican Senate Majority Leader Trent Lott (R-MS) warned that a bloc of rabble-rousers spells further Senate dysfunction. I trust that Tea Party candidates will not easily sell out to the Between the Beltways values of incumbency. The real question is whether they will be perched on principle and accomplish nothing or if they can find ways to bend enough to effectively legislate their policies.