Senator John McCain on His Passing

Terry McAulliffe on the Brett Kavanaugh Nomination

Is Mark Warner Intoxicated on Intelligence?

During a Majority Trust Retreat Dinner for the National Democrat Campaign Committee in Martha's Vineyard, Senator Mark Warner (D-VA), the Vice Chair of the Senate Intelligence Committee jested that if you gave him another glass of wine, and he would reveal tantalizing details about the Mueller Special Counsel investigation.



  While this cryptic comment can be passed off as sparkling wit during a wine, brie and rubber chicken fundraiser, this discounts the candor which is afforded to high rolling donors. Rush Limbaugh recalled attending a soiree for big donors to President George W. Bush.  Rush recalled that unlike his cautious, stammering public persona, "W" was entirely a different guy when cameras were not focused on him.  Once assured that the remarks were off the record, Mr. Bush spoke with candor and the President opined without notes for 45 minutes about serious subjects without stuttering. 

Limbaugh insists that teasing big money donors with bogus political bombshells is not done. Deceiving deep pocket donors risks alienating their pocketbooks in the future.  

This may be why President Trump chronicled Warner's supposedly tipsy insinuation.  

Taken at face value, Democrats are colluding with the Special Counsel. In addition, they are relying on precursors of impeachable offenses to base their midterm election campaign.  This could explain why Vanity Fair proclaimed that Mueller could give the GOP an October Surprise. 

If it is the case that Warner has advanced intelligence about the Mueller investigation, why is information on an active case being leaked to a key Democrat?   Is Warner intoxicated with illegal insider intelligence or just intoxicated on power?

President Trump on Immigration Bills

John Boehner on the GOP

John Brennan on Enabling Trump

Appraising "The Great Revolt" by Salena Zito and Brad Todd

After Richard Nixon won the 1972 Presidential election in a 49 state landslide, New Yorker film critic was flummoxed at how this could happen as none of her Manhattanite friends would vote for him.  This possibly apocryphal episode illustrated how seaboard elites can be so out of touch with Middle America (sometimes flippantly labeled as  “Fly Over Country”).

A similar cognitive dissonance has occurred at the election of President Donald Trump in 2016. Heading into election night, the 538 blog polling guru Nate Silver predicted that Hillary Clinton had a 72% chance of winning.  Yet when election results were confirmed at 2:30 AM November 9th, Donald J. Trump gave a victory speech.  While Mr. Trump won a huge 304 to 227 (with five disloyal electors), the margins of victory in five Rust Belt states were close.  Had 56,000 voters not voted for Mr. Trump, then Bill Clinton would have returned to the White House as First Gentleman (sic).

To delve into how Donald Trump was able to confound conventional wisdom and assembled a new coalition which led him to the White House, Salena Zito and Brad Todd wrote “The Great Revolt: Inside the Populist Coalition Reshaping American Politics” (2018 Crown Forum 309 pages).  Salena Zito is a reporter from Pittsburgh but made made her mark during the campaign for the New York Post by traveling to these Midwest battleground states and interviewing prospective Trump voters to understand their attraction and enthusiasm for this first time populist candidate. 

These oral histories are backed up by data from Brad Todd’s On Message Inc. polling unit. The metrics were particularly instructive in seeing how sentiments shifted in swing counties between 2008 and 2016.

The Great Revolt featured 21 interviews with voters from two key counties in Pennsylvania, Ohio, Michigan, Wisconsin and Iowa. These interviews felt like an extended coffee talk at a diner with a trusted confidant.  The Great Revolt broke down these voters into seven archetypes: 1) Red Blooded and Blue Collar 2) Perotistas 3) Rough Rebounders 4) Girl Gun Power 5) Rotary Reliables 6) King Cyrus Christians 7) Silent Suburban Moms.  While they all chose to support Trump, their pathways were not straight and narrow and deserve careful consideration. 

Over the past several elections, Democrats seemed to abandon salt of the earth blue collar erstwhile Democrats to favor demographically up and coming minority majorities and those new voters who might be culled from immigration.  During the 2008 Democrat primaries, candidate Barack Obama derisively referred to rural Rust Belt voters as “bitter clingers to their guns and their Bibles”.  Ironically, Ms. Clinton was trying to win their support for her first failed presidential run.   

Yet in 2016, these same segment of voters were ignored by the Hillary! campaign as she declared that half of Trump supporters were a “Basket of Deplorables” which might serve as a caricature of this segment of voters which would be more sympathetically described as The Forgotten Man.  

Hillary Clinton chose to ignore Wisconsin during the 2016 General Election campaign and made only a couple of trips to large population centers in Michigan, figuring that she had those votes already in the bag.  Donald Trump campaigned hard in Rust Belt states in rural precincts and scraped together enough support to win the Wolverine State by about 8,000 votes (0.23%) and the Badger State by about 22,000 votes (0.77%).  

Pundits have pontificated that Republicans face a demographic problem whereas Democrats have a geographic problem, as they continue to lose support in vast swaths of middle America.  In 2016, Mrs. Clinton only won 526 counties compared to the over 1500 counties that her husband President Clinton won in 1992.  What became obvious after election night 2016, racking up large victories in the popular vote does not necessarily win the White House.  Both parties would learn from contemplating the shared psyches of these Trump voters if The Great Revolt was a one time populist phenomenon, if it can transfer unto other populist politicians and if it can be sustained after 2016.

A couple of these Great Revolt subgroups, such as Rotary Reliables and NRA inspired Girl Gun Power types  are likely to continue to actively oppose progressive politics as it directly impacts their intrinsic interests.   It is more dubious for other groups.  In 2016, evangelical voters made a pragmatic decision to back Mr. Trump, who has a messy personal life and whose blithe brashness is an antithetical attitude, because they were concerned about the Supreme Court and pushing back against abortion.  The outlook for Perotistas is unclear as their support seemed personality driven and may not be transferrable.  The three women interviewed as Perotistas were superannuated, so one can surmise that their support will age out.

As much as the iconoclastic mainstream billionaire turned celebrity politician appealed to some segments of The Great Revolt voters, what became quite clear is how his opponent and the nature of the race also impacted the election.  In some of the vignettes, the anti-Hillary! sentiment jumped off the page. 

 Many of the interviewees came from union families or those who served in the military would have been quite at ease in John F. Kennedy’s Democrat Party but who are red headed stepchildren in today’s Democrat Party.  That being said, they probably would not have participated in politics or been motivated to vote GOP had Donald Trump not reached out and appealed to their sensibilities.   They may not always agree with Mr. Trump and may recoil at some of his Tweets or stances but as Salena Zito nailed during the campaign, they know to take Trump seriously but not always literally (unlike the anti-Trump pack press).

Most of the coalition in The Great Revolt worried about their economic security and loss of their rural way of life, it did not seem like there was strong linkage to “Build the Wall” or immigration.  While one union activist was strongly against NAFTA, much of the blue collar sentiments revolved around being forgotten by their erstwhile allies, the Democrats.   

While the interviews in The Great Revolt were vivid, it would have been desirable if there was a bit more uniformity when describing the interlocutors.  Not all of the portraits had demographic details or made it easy to discern the interviewees profession.  There also seemed to be a disconnect between the prefatory analysis with the dialogues of the Trump voters.  The authors rightly proposed that Mr. Trump’s social media instincts allowed him to circumvent curating by the mainstream media and directly reach his coalitions.  Yet many of the interviewees contained in The Great Revolt wished that President Trump would tweet less. 

That being said, surely Salena Zito and Brad Todd appreciated President Trump’s pre-publication post which extolled the virtues of The Great Revolt.

The case histories in The Great Revolt offer insightful context for the unexpected coalition which elected Donald Trump to the White House in 2016.  But the archetypes portrayed in The Great Revolt may point to traits that could appear in other voter segments.   Democrats have opted to appeal to progressive identity politics and rely on the brown wave of new voters in lieu of  “The Forgotten Man” (rural, blue collar, union white males).   A flaw with that strategy is that it relies upon banked voters, which since 1964 have been the bulk of black voters.  The Great Revolt chronicles how slim segments of voters who feel neglected and come to the epiphany that their traditional party no longer represents their values can impact an election.

Recently, Kanye West said some favorable things towards President Trump. Perhaps that was a publicity stunt or an African American celebrity "talking out of turn" as Rep Maxine Waters (D-CA 43rd) claimed. But afterwards polling showed a doubling of his support among African Americans.  Mr. Trump has been making explicit appeals for those voters.  

It is conceivable that an upsurge in black labor participation and showing up to make the case may shift some attitudes, or mollify some of the bile against him. Conservative Black video bloggers Diamond and Silk have shown that elements of the Trump Administration agenda may have some appeal to fed up African American voters.  Black represent about 13% of voters and in recent elections have voted about 95% for Democrats.  If there is a 5% shift in that segment of reliable votes, Democrats’ election strategy may be in trouble. 

Immediate Analysis After Speaker Ryan Revealed No Re-Election Plans

Rand Paul on GOP Metanoia on the Budget

Senator Rand Paul (R-KY) has some harsh words for his Republican colleagues who are pushing for the six month $1.3 TRILLION spending bill to avoid another government shutdown.  But this is not the first time he has rebuked Republicans for the hypocrisy about governmental spending and the broken budgetary process. 

Mika Brzezinski on Talking About Gun Control Immediately After the Florida School Shooting

Less than a day after the Parkland Florida School Massacre, in which at least 17 people were killed, MSNBC Anchor Mika Brezinski was insistent about having constructive talk about solutions.  Considering the midtown Manhattan mores of the mainstream media, this mean venting about gun control. Brzezinski threatened to unbook any guests on the Morning Joe who wanted to defer this constructive talk to either wait for confirmed details or out of respect for the victims' families. 

It is natural as members of the media cover this travesty live, they will opine supposed "answers" to make sense of the mire.On Fox News, conservative Sean Hannity got on his hobby horse for his entire hour in prime time to push for all schools to hire armed veterans for school security. For cash strapped districts, a guest suggested having federalized security, like the TSA.  The morning after the Parkland School Shooting, Salem Radio's centrist Republican Hugh Hewitt wondered why there was not a "No Buy List" for mentally troubled individuals. While that touches on the mental health aspect, it raises issues about an over expansive no-buy list, as Obamacare barred many Veterans diagnosed with PTSD from exercising their Second Amendment rights.

Although there are many indications that the shooter had a troubled teen with many mental illness markers, inevitably the knee jerk reaction for this so called "constructive talk"  will be a gun grab or advocating measures like a better background check (which have already been instituted).

Just as reality shows are somewhat scripted, Morning Joe is positioned to proffer reliable perspectives. Mika's booking benchmark shows how progressive will not let a good crisis to go to waste to grab guns.

John Thune on Establishment Politics in the District of Calamity

 One week before the Alabama Senate election to replace Jeff Sessions (R-AL), who left the comforts of the Senate to be President Trump's Attorney General,  there are still Republicans who are trying to manipulate the race.

The appointed replacement Senator Luther Strange (R-AL), who had the backing of Beltway Establishment and President Trump, was defeated in the primaries by former Alabama Supreme Court Justice Roy Moore (R-AL).    

Since then, the Washington Post has been printing bombshell reports that Moore had indecent relations with minors and had a penchant for dating teenagers when he was a 34 year old Assistant District Attorney. Even though Moore had been in the spotlight for nearly forty years and never had such allegations come to light, partisans on both sides agitated over these accusations. 

Democrats saw the Moore allegations as a way to make trouble and pick up an unexpected Senate seat.  They will paint Moore's continued presence in the race with Republicans being creepy child molesters and pair him with Donald Trump.  Alabama Law does not allow for substitute candidates, so if Moore dropped out at this point (or there was a write in effort), it creates trouble and still gives Democrats a chance to have virtual control of the 115th Congress (with a united 49 seat Democrat minority).

Republican Party partisans fear that they might lose an otherwise dependable seat, so they sought to either have Moore drop out or have a credible Republican write in option.  The latter strategy would have party bosses choose the candidate thereby mooting the voice of the voters in Alabama.  There are few instances in successful Senate write in candidates, and the exception to the rule was Senator Lisa Murkowski (R-AK) in 2010,  an incumbent who had plenty of time to run as a write-in. Even so, there were problems with misspelling and discerning voter intent. Centrist Republican media personality Hugh Hewitt suggested that if Senator Strange resigned, it would preclude the 12/12 special election and Alabama Governor Kay Ivey (R-AL) could appoint another substitute Senator until November 2018.  That did not happen.

The Republican National Committee and the Republican National Senate Committee had withdrawn support from Roy Moore to disassociate themselves with the candidate and possibly nudge him to step aside.  But the Alabama GOP and Governor Ivey stuck by Moore, even with the unsavory allegations.  At first, President Trump just did negative campaigning against Democrat Senate candidate Doug Jones (D-AL). One week before the special election, Trump gave full support.  Senator McConnell relented as did the RNC.

Senator Thune's (R-SD) cri-de-coeur on Cavuto epitomizes the Establishment's animus against Roy Moore.  Even before he is elected, the  GOP leaders threaten an ethics probe.  Does the Republican Senate leadership  just want to maintain a whiter than snow aura to them? Could Roy Moore's social conservative politics have anything to do with last minute appeals discouraging voting for the firebrand.  Perhaps Moore's vow not to continue support for Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell have something to do with the cable TV hit?

Roy Moore may be a lightning rod in the District of Calamity in 2018.  Democrats will want to run on character assassination and majority ineptitude.   Establishment Republicans want to keep power but not rock the boat, thus it is to the GOP Senate leadership's advantage to keep a firebrand out of office, even if it means having a virtually divided Senate.

Alabama was one of the states which rocketed candidate Donald Trump to the Republican Presidential nomination.  This conservative state filled with old time religion embraced the flawed character of Mr. Trump.  Pollster George Barna postulated that SAGE-Cons (Spiritually Aware Governmentally Active Conservatives) looked beyond the human flaws of Trump to see someone who now embraces their core beliefs and one who is willing to shake up the system of get things done.

On December 12th, Alabamans will make their choice.

The Flakey Conscience of a Conservative?

Senator Jeff Flake (R-AZ) was caught on a hot mike opining that if Republicans continued on a political path towards anti-Establishment Donald Trump that the GOP was toast.

This personal animus against President Trump did not go unanswered on Twitter.

Earlier in the year, Senator Flake was hawking a book "The Conscience of a Conservative" (2017) which echoed the title of  his Arizona predecessor (1960) Senator Barry Goldwater (R-AZ).  This sort of self promotion is often the precursor for a politician who is seeking higher office.  Yet Flake was convinced not to run again in 2018.  Since then, Flake has reveled at being a gladfly against the Trump Administration.

While it would be hard to quibble with Flake being a Republican, it is egregious to appreciate him being a quintessential conservative.  Senator Flake's hot mic moment might better be understood how Establishment Republicans see how the comfort of being go along to get along hacks who talk a good game on the hustings but become docile in the District of Calamity. 

John McCain on Spurious Half Baked Nationalism

Senator McCain's remarks as he received the National Constitution Center's Liberty award seems to be aimed at the populist politics championed by erstwhile Trump Senior Advisor Stephen Bannon. 

Mitch McConnell Verbally Battles Bannon Fodder

At the Value Voters Summit, ex Trump Administration strategist Stephen Bannon declared war against the Republican Establishment who will not support President Trump's agenda.  Bannon specifically targeted Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY). According to Bannon, he will not raise funds for any candidates who would vote for McConnell as the GOP Leader in the 116th Congress. 

After a working lunch between President Trump and the Senate Majority Leader, the two Republican leaders had a Rose Garden press conference which sought to mollify Bannon's calls for internecine revolt. President Trump claimed to understand why Bannon was agitated but suggested that not everyone in the Senate should be thrown out, as some members are good for the Trump agenda.

Majority Leader McConnell battled the Bannon fodder by suggesting that the way to win in Washington is to choose the right candidates, rather than achieve legislative accomplishments for a President in the same party.  McConnell called to mind the Tea Party boomlet in 2010, in which insurgents like Sharron Angle (R-NV) and Christine O'Donnell (R-DE), who upset GOP establishment candidates but who lost in the end.  Of course, these Tea Party insurgents did not get strong assistance from the national Republican Party and faced hostility from prospective colleagues like Senator John McCain.

On a Maverick Bromance

Not only are they both loyal to each other and a mutual admiration society but they both are quite hawkish on the American uses of force throughout the world.  But despite the caricature, they can apply more viral war paint. 

John McCain Denounces Rand Paul as Putin Apparatchik

House Speaker Paul Ryan on Repeal and Replace Obamacare

Chuck Schumer Supposes Significant GOP Dissent on Trump

Ann Coulter on Republicans in Congress

The GOP's Milo Test?

Last week, CPAC seemed to have scored a coup in landing provocateur extraordinaire Milo Yiannopoulos as the "Conservative" Political Action Committee's keynote speaker. Yiannopoulos was slated to speak about free speech on campus, as he was at the center of the UC Berkeley riots at the start of February.   

However, less than three days later on Washington's Birthday Observed (a.k.a. Presidents' Day), this honor was unceremoniously yanked from Milo, after Yiannopoulos made some statements which seemed to condone pederasty.  Yiannapoulos' book deal also was cancelled.

Many new to the political scene in support of President Donald Trump seemed ideologically enamored to Milo's in-your-face publicity stunts and alt-right rhetoric.  Whether this episode establishes the high mark for Alt-Right infiltration of Republicans or it underlines the tension between the establishment GOP and the so-called "basket of deplorables" nationalist populist wing remains to be seen.