Is a New Chesapeake Bay Crossing a Bridge Too Far?

Gov. Larry Hogan (R-MD) announcing 2nd Maryland Chesapeake crossing in August 2016

Governor Larry Hogan (R-MD) has championed studying a new crossing of the Chesapeake Bay for Maryland.  The existing Bay Bridge (officially dubbed “The Gov. William Preston Lane Memorial Bridge” was completed in 1952 at a cost of $45 million  to connect the Eastern shore of Maryland with the heart of the state (adjacent Annapolis and proximate to Baltimore and Washington DC). A parallel three lane span was added in 1972 for $145 million.  The shore-to-shore 4.35 mile length is one of the world’s longest over the water structures.

When the Chesapeake Bay bridge was conceived in the 1930s, it was intended to augment connectivity to the lower Eastern Shore.  It turned out that the Bay Bridge spurred the tourist industry at coastal Ocean City, Maryland.  To a lesser extent, the US 301/50 route can be a lesser congested Eastern Seaboard alternative to the heavily trafficked I-95. A new crossing is projected to cost $6.78 billion and may take a generation to complete, if it is not blocked.

It used to be that most communities would rejoice in announcements of infrastructure as a harbinger of progress and economic improvement.  But there has been a generation of progressive politicos who have sought to slow many infrastructure expansions under the guise of environmentalism and to tilt towards  “smart growth” (which usually gravitates towards urban options).  


Another impediment to economic expansion projects is social justice community activists, as was recently demonstrated by Rep. Alexandria Ocasio Cortez (D-NY 14th) et ali. who chased away 25,000 high paying Amazon HQ2 jobs in New York City because of the impact on the underprivileged residents in Queens by giving too many corporate tax breaks.




To prognosticate about a new Chesapeake Bay bridge crossing, one must assess the underlying  motivations for the crossing, consider opposition groups arguments to discern how it would locate and shape the project, and assess the feasibility of the endeavor.  Prima facia, the three leading rationales for another crossing would be: 

1. To alleviate current congestion (oriented towards tourism on the Bay and the shore) 
2. To spur economic growth on the Eastern shore aside from agriculture or tourism; or 
3. To foster urban expansion along the Bay with bedroom communities.  

It is vital that the aim of the infrastructure is clear, as the “Free State” of Maryland does not have the money to burn like California to have an expensive white elephant infrastructure project like the high speed train boondoggle.  


In August 2016, Governor Hogan shepherded $5 million into studying the issue of a new Chesapeake Bay crossing.  Some of these funds included a survey to assess the inclusion of mass transit components to such a project.  Unlike previous studies which only considered expansions and reconfiguration of the Bay Bridge (2015) or just a handful of options (2004), the current study considers 14 crossings to Maryland’s Eastern Shore.  These prospective one mile wide corridors span from Havre de Grace in the north to the southern St. Mary’s County. Several choices were routed through parks or wildlife sanctuaries, which is rife for spawning environmentally inspired lawsuits, but may serve as Overton Window wedges.  A couple of options butt against US military installations, which poses its own problems with Uncle Sam.

Preliminary map of new Chesapeake Bay crossings, Feb. 2019

The “green” inter-modal option of  a transit crossing appeared to be a bust as only 1.4% would seek using mass transit Chesapeake crossings on weekends and 4.4% on weekdays. The focus on traffic intimates that alleviating current and prospective congestion leans towards option 1. There is room between the current spans of the Bay Bridge to squeeze in three more lanes in a new span but they would also be likely to be narrow lanes without a hard shoulder.  These  might help with the flow of traffic once on the Bay Bridge, but there is the problem with the gateways, which may be hard to expand and that contributes to congestion.  Sunday traffic is expected to grow to 125,000 cars on a Sunday by 2040 - which is a 31% increase.


If the impetus is to alleviate the swell of weekend beach traffic, southern routes seem optimal, except traffic patterns, logistics and politics.  Depending upon how far south the crossing is routed, this puts traffic pressure on Rt. 2 & 4, which are just four lane highways that are far off the Baltimore and DC Beltways. Then there is the small matter of the length of the crossing. One route would have the bridge be 22 miles long, which indubitably would make the project much more costly than current projections. Not to mention, a far southern Chesapeake crossing would require a bridge height of 186 feet for shipping instead of the 100 feet further north.

A second possible driving force for a new Chesapeake Bay crossing would be to stimulate economic development. Clearly, tourism is a key component of the Eastern shore economy, whether it is vacations to the shore at family friendly Ocean City or maritime merriment on the Chesapeake.  That being said, much of the Eastern shore is agriculturally oriented and not particularly prosperous, such Cecil County and the Northern part of Kent County. Crossings near Aberdeen could stimulate some industrial expansion and have a synergy of having a northern connection to US 301.  This option would probably not alleviate beach traffic congestion but might not engender as much political opposition. Another drawback is routes would cross through a state park and necessity crossing around (or through) Aberdeen Proving Grounds, which is a US Navy facility and requires significant environmental remediation.

A third motivation for another Chesapeake Bay crossing might be to facilitate urban expansion.  Since Baltimore’s suburbs abut the Chesapeake, constructing a bridge from Anne Arundel County to Rock Hall or Tolchester Beach within easy reach of urban commuters in prospective Eastern shore bedroom communities.  This connection makes historic sense as prior to the advent of the Bay Bridge, Tolchester Beach was a day trip getaway by ferry for Baltimoreans. But in the seventy years that have past, there is a marked cultural shift between the shores.  Those on the Eastern Shore who appreciate the bucolic character of their locale would bristle at the bustle effectively being bedroom communities to Baltimore, with all of the association urban problems. This crossing place would also endanger historic landscapes around Rock Hall and Chesterton. 


This appeal to history to thwarting big projects worked in thwarting building Disney’s America near Haymarket, Virginia (near the Civil War Bull Run Battlefields) in the early 1990s. However, there was one key difference between horsey-country around Haymarket and the pastoral Eastern shore–who’s ox was being gored?  

Disney certainly had commercial muscle but this was pitted against those are monied owners of horse farms or who fancy themselves as gentlemen farmers yet commute to Between the Beltways.  The added congestion would impede well connected people getting to their country retreats where they live and exercise political influence.  It is dubious that Eastern Shore anti-growth groups have such political sway, and those interests would be pitted against those interests want to play on the Eastern Shore. 

Community organizing on the “West Bank” might also thwart crossings in that area.  Local politicians note that if a site is selected in Anne Arundel County that major opposition would be engendered to keep further congestion out of their area. 

How does this get resolved?  That’s that $6.78 billion question. The results of the $5 million environmental impact study will be released in 2020. Nevertheless, one should expect environmental court challenges. The study allotted 10% of its budget anticipating litigation.  Green challenges may be more of a Trojan Horse for no growth. 

The process also requires assent of the majority of Eastern Shore counties.  There will be public hearings during the spring of 2019 to identify corridors to be retained for analysis.  This would be followed by a final environmental impact statement in the winter of 2020.

 Anti-growth opponents such as the Kent Conservation & Preservation Alliance suggest spending that bridge-full of funds to bolster livable communities which obviates the impetus for long distance commuting, especially across the Chesapeake Bay.  That is wishful thinking, especially if facilitating tourism is the driver to the project. Other community activists might be open to another crossing but with a NIMBY (Not In My Back Yard) nuance.  

While this seems like parochial politics, it does impact the District of Calamity (sic) because of its proximity to the Nation’s Capitol, as many DMV denizens like relaxing on the Eastern Shore. But in a broader view, it illustrates a riptide of public policy.  Environmentalists and Smart Growth (translated “No Growth) interests pitted against those who want to keep easy access to their Eastern Shore playground and politicians who want to grow the state’s economy through infrastructure expansion.

Let’s just hope that something is complete before the Bay Bridge needs to be replaced by 2065.

Interpreting the Green New Deal Dream -- Green Is the New Red

Thanks for Nothing AOC!

The Job Creators Network reacted to Community Activist turned freshman Representative Alexandria Ocasio Cortez's (D-NY-14th) celebration of chasing away Amazon from expanding its HQ2 to Long Island City (Queens), New York by erecting a pointed message at Times Square. The message offers some economic analysis for the loss of the business opportunity and sarcastically suggests: "Thanks for Nothing" AOC.

When Winning Isn't Enough for Ocasio-Cortez

Congresswoman-Elect Alexandria Ocasio Cortez (D-NY 14th), a 29 year old Democrat Socialist who hails from The Bronx, New York, won her general election with 78% of the vote.  Yet her initial comments either indicated an unpreparedness for victory or a pose to propagandize her brand.

Due to the demographics of the district, it was virtually fait accompli that Ocasio Cortez would win in November after surprising House Democrat stalwart Rep. Joe Crowley (D-NY 14th) by 15% in the June 2018 New York primaries.  Yet after she won, Ocasio Cortez publicly complained that she would not have income for three months, so it would be initially dicey for her to find digs in DC prior to her "inauguration" (sic). 

So an economics major from Boston University from Boston University could not budget enough buffer for a sure thing victory in order to have a place to stay in the District of Calamity prior to pulling her first paycheck  Sure.

Detractors of the rising Democrat Socialist star have derided her as Occasional Cortez, who they believe is not bright nor schooled in the political process.  However, the wording of her "too broke to move" sob story hint that it is contrived political posturing.

Ocasio Cortez comes from the Bernie Sanders wing of the Democrat Party (despite the fact that Sanders actually is no longer a member of the party).  Aside from her chops of being a community organizer, Ocasio Cortez tries to conjure the mien of being considered a working class hero.  What better way to identify with voters who live paycheck to paycheck to play up this wage gap before taking office?

This would not be the first time that Ocasio Cortez has played fast and loose with her bio to identify with the downtrodden.  Ocasio Cortez played up her roots in the Bronx, even after it became evident that she grew up living with her  architect father in well to do Westchester County while commuting to school in the Bronx. 

If Ocasio Cortez truly cannot afford an apartment before she is "viviendo del mamey" (Boricuan slang for living off the state budget, or living the easy life), she could follow the example of outgoing House Speaker Paul Ryan, who slept in his office.  Surely the DNC has a room that they can set aside for the newly elected working class leader.  Just make sure that you pay the average daily rate for lodging lest you get hounded and forced to resign like former Trump Energy Secretary Scott Pruitt.  Check that, ethics rules usually only apply for Republicans.

Ocasio Cortez's post election kerfluffle may hint at trouble for Democrats organizing in Washington.  It would seem that Ocasio Cortez is not content to be a back bencher while learning the ropes on Capitol Hill.  

 It seems that there are three contending factions in the Democrat Caucus:  The old school, like presumed Speaker Rep. Nancy Pelosi (D-CA 12th) and current Democrat Whip Rep. Steny Hoyer (D-MD 5th), who are established Democrats who are eager to regain their powerful positions. 

While it is a relatively small faction, there are moderates like Rep. Tim Ryan (D-OH 13th), who seem like vestigial Democrats of old who champion patriotic union working class voters.  Their clout may be somewhat bolstered by the fact that many of the newly elected Democrats won because of their moderate credentials.  

Then there are the Young Turks, like Ocasio Cortez, who want the revolution now. Losing Democrat Senator Claire McCaskill (D-MO), labeled them the crazies.  These rabble rousers will not wait their turn for power.  They may chaff at having their leadership being comprised of septuagenarian establishment types who want to protect their positions rather than upturning the system.  

The question is how the (Democrat) Congressional Black Caucus will side in the leadership battle.  On the one hand, the CBC has paid their dues and followed a strategy of rising to ranking member status by hanging onto office forever (save ex Rep. John Conyers, who was chased out of office in late 2017 after fifty years because of sexual harassment allegations).   Congresswoman "Auntie Maxie" Waters (D-CA 43rd) is in line to be the Chair of the Financial Services Committee, so she has strong motivations to line up with the establishment.  But Waters also was a driving force during the Midterms to chant "Impeach 45".   Ms. Pelosi was trying to tamp down those voices during the campaign.  If House Democrats intend to govern, leadership may strive to quash those sentiments, which could cause resentment and a change of alliance.

In the last 115th Congress, the CBC felt slighted in leadership.  House Democrats made up a faux leadership position for Rep. James Clyburn (D-SC 6th) as "Assistant Democrat Leader", but who had  a title but little clout.  It is unclear if that will be enough for the CBC now that they are back at the helm in the House. Fourth term incumbent Hakeem Jeffries (D-NY 8th) is vying  to succeed Joe Crowley for the number four position in the Democrat Caucus as Caucus Chair.  This might split the CBC as Jeffries competitor includes entrenched left coast progressive CBC member  Rep. Barbara Lee (D-CA 13th). 

Next week, Democrats will return to the Capitol City and organize their caucus.  Either Ocasio Cortez will have to couch surf or get a cash advance to participate.   

Alexandria Ocasio Cortez Defines Democratic Socialism